On the May 2021 elections 2: post results analysis.

After spending the weekend watching the results trickle in, a lot of commentaries have been generated.

The biggest surprise was how close the London mayoral race was, as some have pointed out Bailey could have won if his campaign had been better supported. 

Looking at my hoped-for results from Thursday, it was disappointing that Fox ended up sixth. It also shows the shattering of the former UKIP vote. If we look at the numbers ((from the BBC):



Combined Reform, UKIP, and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly party got 107454 votes but zero seats (another disappointment), compared to the last election when UKIP got 132,138 votes and 7 seats. These results show If they are to be viable going forward, these shards need to be put back together into a single party IMO.
Looking at the English results, a few commentators have picked up on the beginnings of a shift away from the conservatives in the more affluent, remain voting areas. I'm not sure if there is sufficient support to replace the lost voters in the North and Midlands yet, but could be a problem longer term. As Ed West put it:

we can add up the votes for an anti-woke, patriotic candidate as 47,634 (Reclaim), 14,393 (UKIP), 11,025 (Heritage), a total of 73,052. To these, we could possibly add Brian Rose (31,111), the anti-lockdown Pier Corbyn (20,604), and the pro-Brexit SDP candidate Steve Kelleher (8,764) a total of 133531. This would have been enough to place fourth, ahead of the Lib Dems. 

We also saw this split in the Welsh Parliament:

Labour now has a coalition designed for winning in the Britain of 2040. They have strong support among the young, unmarried, renters and ethnic minorities — all the groups which are demographically ascendent.

This shows the importance of getting rid of the left's stranglehold on education, promoting marriage and families, and limiting migration until the demographics start to sort out.

Finally, it seems that the Greens are continuing to displace the Lib Dems as the third party protest vote, I do not see any viable future for them or path back to relevance in the near term. 

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