On what if scenarios: London goes boom!

 Scott Lowther ponders this after viewing a clip of London getting wipe out by an orbital kinetic weapon (AKA Project Thor). I started to leave a comment but as it got longer and longer I decided to post here instead.

So, let's go through some of his questions and try to make a realistic prediction:

First, he posits 'would this utterly trash Britain?' he also states 'London is responsible for a whole lot of the British economy, but it’s sorta the “fake” economy of financial stuff, not growing stuff or making stuff.' Well, first off there is the issue of all the banks being vaporized, along with all their ICT systems. I'd hope they have backups but it could be that the entire payments system ceases to function. The result for the rest of the UK would be no one would be able to use a credit or debit card, withdraw cash or even access their accounts. Guess we'd be back to cash pretty sharpish. 

In addition, all the insurance underwriters (Lloyds, etc) would be gone, so good luck claiming on a policy anytime soon. As well as all the other city functions disappearing (stock records, futures contracts, etc) the impact would probably cause a major financial meltdown worldwide as New York, Tokyo, etc. markets plunge. Short term there would be a massive shock to the 'productive' parts of the economy.

Another point to consider regarding the impact on the rest of Britain is how many people commute into London, those deaths would be felt far from the city and would devastate many other towns and villages.

Next, he states 'Presumably, the bulk of British government types would be included in the lost, along with the Royals'. Starting with the royals, given how many people are in the line of succession it's unlike the entire Royal family would be wiped out, even if all those who live in central London were present during the event (The Queen herself could have been at Balmoral, Sandringham, etc so survived). It could be Prince Andrew or Edward (neither of whom live in London) are the highest-ranked survivors or we could go further down the line. 

As for the government, there is no official line of succession so if the PM, cabinet, and Parliament were all gone there would be a crisis, there are probably Cold War-era contingency plans for a national response to the disaster. No doubt the military and local governments would co-ordinate the initial response, the Queen (or new monarch) would have to appoint a new PM ASAP, probably giving them a peerage so there is some constitutional link.  Longer-term there would be by-elections to replace the MP's killed, the balance in the new  House of Commons shited due to the absence of London's MP's.

Then, he asks ' what would be the likely immediate outcome to wider British society? Would Scotland at last say “see ya” and bug out? Would the remaining Brits decide that now’s the time to restore Britain and eject the “grooming gangs” and their enablers? Would English ethnonationalism rise as a way to bring the people (well, most of them) together to recover, or would they sink into a morass of malaise and infighting?'

I doubt the SNP is that cynical to try and invoke independence on the back of such an enormous tragedy, there would be a considerable backlash if they tried to. Given the response to the Covid epidemic, I'd imagine there would be a Blitz style coming together in the short term. As for his comments on the demographics, unless the said incident was caused by a foreign government with a large ex-pat community in the UK (Pakistan for example), I doubt there would be a large backlash against immigrants and an effort to expel them. 

Finally, he asks 'would they bother trying to rebuild London?' 

Given the scale of the postulated damage, it probably makes more sense not to rebuild the city as was. Given the cost involved (and the financial crisis unleashed I mentioned earlier) and population loss, there wouldn't be a need to rebuild to house survivors, so longer-term I'd imagine the city being re-wilded, maybe as a memorial park. The Thames Barrier may need to be permanently closed to the area doesn't get flooded, or a new channel may need to be excavated from Richmond/wherever the devastation reaches to. Politically there may be increased importance for local governments and the economy would be far smaller shorn of the city and financial sector. Maybe we would see a return to small local banks, insurers, exchanges, etc.

Lastly, I would consider the biggest loss after those killed would be cultural. Having the National Gallery, Tate, British Museum, Tower of London, and Crown Jewels vaporized along with all the other archives and collections in London would be a huge loss for the UL and the world. It would be the absence of these that would be most felt going forward, IMO.