On Reforming Britain 1: The future makeup of the UK

Another new series, as the name suggests these posts will look at options for renewing the institutions, policies, and purpose of the UK for the rest of the 21st-century and beyond. To begin with, I will consider the fundamental issue of what changes could happen to the territory and name of the UK.

The relationship between the 4 nations that make up the UK has been under strain ever since the devolution initiatives of the Blair government, but especially since the 2016 Brexit referendum. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, this has led to renewed calls for Scottish Independence and the Reunification of Ireland. This post will show 4 possible scenarios for a future Britain.

Before moving onto these scenarios, a quick recap on the origins of the name of the UK, as this influences the names I use of successor states. To put it simply:

England (and Wales) + Scotland + Kingdom of Great Britain,

Kingdom of Great Britain + Northern Ireland = United Kingdom of Great Britain and  Northern Ireland.

Having said that, let's move onto the scenarios for future Britain:

1) Kingdom of Great Britain and Ulster:


The smallest change, in the event of repartitioning Northern Ireland (though there would be a lot of disruption and potentially violence) to cause this to occur. Note the border shown above is only an approximation, based on current Westminster parliamentary constituencies to give a rough outline. Not very likely IMO.

2) Kingdom of Great Britain:


In the event of the whole of Northern Ireland reunifying with the Republic of Ireland, a reversion to the pre-1801 Kingdom of Great Britain. More likely than scanario 1 but, but the next one is more realistic IMO.

3) United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland


Most likely short-term scenario, in the event of Scottish independence. An alternative name could be the United Kingdom Britain and Northern Ireland. Other variations could be in combination with scenario 1, the United Kingdom of Britain and Ulster:

4) Kingdom of England and Wales


Worst case scenario from a Unionist perspective, in the event of both Scotland and NI departing. Again, some of the Scottish isles could remain in the rump state, and an alternative name could be the Kingdom of Britain.

Future posts in this series will look at constitutional reforms, including the monarchy, Parliament, devolution/local government, citizenship, the military, and so on. These will be an evolving series so posts may get updated and expanded in the future. 

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